Adobe Flash has for some time been struggling with a bad rep for being the tool "which is used for creating annoying banner ads". This view does hold water in many cases, adding insult to injury the fact that many Flash sites are poorly built and tend to leave users with a crashing web-browser. It seems like Adobe are segmenting out Flash as a cowboy tool, fronting Flash Catalyst and Flash Builder as the tools for creating "real" RIA applications and "robust" rich interactive web sites. On the other hand this may not be their intention at all, however I do believe it will be the result following this strategy.
I base this assumption on two things in large. One is the fact that the Flash authoring tool becomes more or less redundant with the introduction of Flash Catalyst, seeing it from a designer standpoint. As for developers, the Flash authoring tool has never been the first choice to put it in subtle terms. The second argument bases itself in the evolutionary direction in which rich internet applications are heading. Current trends shows that rich web-sites and RIA applications grow ever more complex, at the same time users are demanding a more friendly UI, conformity in the experience and short load times. Flex and Catalyst performs advanced tasks better..
Adobe Flash authoring is a tool for creating interactive animations, but has been used for everything else in the past years. I do not think the Flash authoring tool will die, but it's role will diminish, leaving Flash Catalyst as the main designer tool for rich content and Flash Builder as the developers choice.